Mobile Point View by Paul Ruppert

25 million Chinese mobile time-bombs in India

25 million mobile handsets may turn into paper weights in India on April 15, 2009.

Chinese handset manufacturers have flooded the Indian market with over 25 million handsets over the last few years and these phones do not have IMEIs.  What is an IMEI you say?

An IMEI is a unique 15-digit code that identifies the handset. Each time a call is made, the mobile network operator uses the IMEI to identify the caller via a universal registry of phones. If a phone lacks an IMEI, the telecommunications company can still route the number to the destination, but it does not know which phone is making the call. Therein, rests the problem: India's Department of Telecommunications in the Ministry of Communications and I.T. believes these anonymous IMEI phones could be used by terrorists of any stripe or color.

India's Dept of Telecomm relayed to mobile operators in India that in " the interest of national security, all Indian telecom operators should focus on implementing checks of IMEI within two months."  That was in October 2008. Now April 15 is the deadline. Wireless service providers in India are expected to disconnect mobile phones that lack IMEI on April 15.

While Indian mobile phone users can verify their own IMEI numbers by pressing *#06# on their handsets, what if the consumer is among the unlucky  25 million who are holding one of these 25 million handsets lacking an IMEI? The DoT estimates the 25 million phones lacking IMEI in India account for about 10% of the total phones used in the country.

Indian users are clearly concerned.

And what of the Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, are they inclined to remedy this? Indeed, where is the responsible action from the Indian operators in the first place? Seems nothing at the moment for or from both.

And the ripple effect could spread to financial markets: consider both Vodafone and Airtel could have their stock price effected if suddently these phones turn into bricks. Considering that it is likely these phones are used more by bottom of the pyramid consumers than top, to get these users back, the mobile operators will have to subsidize ever more new phone purchases. A continuing drag could develop.

Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

Beijing's Birds Nest Mobile Bonanza: 5.5 calls per seat, $500,000 an hour

 

Half a Million Calls, from 90,000 people over 4 hours!

According to China Mobile, close to 500,000 calls were placed from the Bird's Nest Olympic Stadium during the Olympics Opening Ceremony.

Everyone in the stadium made over 5 calls over the four hour period, or roughly 1.4 calls per hour by every attendee.

$600,000 per hr
Boys and girls that translates to over $2.5 million in revenue for just the opening ceremonies from one venue. That includes over 250,000 unique registered international roaming services users during the opening ceremony.  You wonder who they were calling all around the world. Nice revenue stream.

24,000 unique users made calls during  the Olympics closing ceremony, which included 20,000 roaming service users.

The company says that it achieved a 100 percent connection rate and only 0.27 percent of calls were dropped by the network.

Remarkably, some 1.2 million China Mobile users watched the games on their mobile phones and 13 million users received Olympic video newsletters via their mobile phones.

One Year in my Blog Life: Keeping Score at Mobile Point View

Readers from 128 Countries

Journalistic cycles  are often driven by calender milestones so today I celebrate my first anniversary as a blogger--albeit it slightly tardy. 

I started Mobile Point View in April of 2007 primarily to frame and define my "personal brand", project and shape awareness of my industry perspective and "thought leadership", enabling me to keep my eye focused on the mobile industry and global business trends through a discipline to discuss my views.

Along the journey I found it also fed internal motivations such as a love/hate relationship with writing, and my wanderlust for "Adventure Roads" and "Adventure Capitalism."

Plus, it feeds my spirit to learn more about other cultures and keep my skills sharp in making connections--both technical and human.  I've been told I've got a combinatorial world view which my blogging reflects, being part travelogue, wireless industry and global commerce analysis, pus a passionate interest in high growth markets such as China, Africa, and the Middle East.

Recognitions & Connections

An unexpected turn along the path has been the recognition of my views and writings by technoscenti like Om Malik of DigOm, Gerry Purdee of Forrester Research and mobilista Rudy De Waele. A surprising approach by Mobile Messaging 2.0 to contribute to that corporate sponsored blog has led to additional "thought leadership" and recently my being tapped to be the Managing Editor of Mobile Messaging 2.0. So now I'm a "professional" journalist, meaning my meanderings put some coin in my pocket.

Another unexpected consequence of having a cyberspace billboard has been the people I've become acquainted with--gratifyingly in other countries--who have graciously shared their time, interests and expertise with me by reaching out and establishing a personal connection as result of my views, especially Lars in Tokyo, Ben in Beijing, Mikki in Hong Kong, Tarek in Egypt, Feng in Beijing, James in London, and Mohammed in Iraq.

Reflecting a modicum of success, the connectedness of the mobile industry and power of the internet, the number of others who I have met at conferences who entered a conversation with "I know you, I've read your blog!" has been surprising and energizing.

What I'm most proud of is being relevant and interesting to readers from 128 countries.   

After a year of blogging, I've got a slurry of mixed metrics on total visits (over 100,000 ), page views, time on blog, google juice, etc., but the one which I'm most proud of is the reflection of my reach and global view point.   Having readers from so many countries reflects my purpose, passion and pursuits to illuminate the power of mobile communications to consumers and its fundamentally global characteristics. 

Interesting Quirks of Where My Readers Are 

Some interesting aspects of my readership include:  9,600 visits from readers in India, 900 visits from readers in Pakistan, 30 visits from readers in Myanmar, over 740 visits from readers in Iran, and 400 visits from readers in Nepal. I've got one regular reader in Foggaret el Arab, the dead middle of Algeria with a population of 4,300. The snowiest reader must be in Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut, Canada--probably someone visiting the Lodge.

I guess that reflects the power of the web, the strength of interest in mobile communications, and once in a while my ability to strike a chord which resonates with a variety of people in diverse international locations. 

Here's a tally of reader countries as of June 2008

A Year in the Blog Life
	Visitors from 128 Countires
Americas (25)	Europe (40)	Asia (26)	Middle East (11)	Africa (26)
US	UK	Australia	Afghanistan	Algeria
Barbados	Andorra	Bangladesh	Bahrain	Botswana
Bolivia	Aserbaijian	Brunei	Egypt	Cameroon
Brazil	Austria	Cambodia	Iran	Canary Islands
Canada	Azores	China	Iraq	Cote D'Ivoire
Cayman Islands	Belgium	Fiji	Israel	Djibouti
Chile	Bosnia	Guam	Jordan	Ethopia
Columbia	Bulgaria	Hong Kong	Kuwait	Gambia
Costa Rica	Czech Republic	India	Oman	Ghana
Dominican Republic	Denmark	Indonesia	Qatar	Libya
Ecuador	Estonia	Japan	UAE	Madagasacar
Grenada	Faeroe  Islands	Kazakhsatan	Yemen	Mali
Guatemala	Finland	Korea		Mauritius
Haiti	France	Laos		Moambique
Honduras	Georgia	Malaysia		Moldova
icaragua	Germany	Marutius		Morocco
Jamiaca	Gibraltar	Myanmar		Mutitania
Martinique	Greece	Nepal		Nigeria
Mexico	Iceland	New Zealand		S. Africa
Paraguay	Ireand	Pakistan		Senegal
Peru	Italy	Philippines		Sudan
Puerto Rico	Latvia	Singapore		Swaziland
St. Vincent	Lichtenstein	Taiwan		Tanzania
Trinidad	Lithuania	Tajikistan		Togo
Urguay	Luxemburg	Thailand		Tunisia
Venezuela	Macedonia	Uzbekistan		Uganda
	Mallorca	Vietnam		Zaire
	Malta
	Monaco
	Netherlands
	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Romania
	Russia
	Serbia
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Turkey
	Ukraine

Mobile Carriers of the Dragon & Elephant: Global CapEx & Rev Leaders

Infonetics Research reports that worldwide service provider capex (capital expenditures) totaled $248.8 billion in 2007, a 7% increase from 2006. Infonetics' report projects a spike in worldwide carrier capex in 2008, followed by a plateau in 2010 and a decline in 2011, and emphasizes that the weak US dollar is inflating current growth rates in Brazil, Canada, China, Europe, India, and Japan.

Their analysis indicates that the mobile industry is in the fourth year of an investment phase, and we may be reaching the plateau this year in both North America and Europe, where large service providers' capital intensity (the ratio of capex to revenue) will likely be as low as 12%.

But the hyper growth economies of China and India will drive a significant jump in carrier capex in 2008 as a result of network construction projects combined with currency appreciation against the US dollar, meaning the Chinese RMB and Indian Rupee are buying much more these days. "Both countries are still posting double-digit revenue growth in their native currencies, which, converted in US dollars creates a big spike in worldwide carrier revenue as well," said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst at Infonetics Research.

Interesting Aspects of the report include:

Telecom service providers earned a combined $1.5 trillion in annual worldwide revenue in 2007, up 10% from 2006, with currency appreciation making up the bulk of the growth, while the rest came from wireless services.
Carriers are increasingly investing in application software (vs. hardware) for media rich applications such as content, storage, and security for broadband based wireline and wireless services
Current investment drivers for carrier spending: convergence between IT, media, Internet, and telecom, which is adding new competitive pressures to carriers, and the shift from legacy TDM to next generation IP networks
The world's 10 largest service providers (ranked by 2007 revenue) are AT&T, Verizon, NTT, Deutsche Telekom, France Télécom, Vodafone, Telefónica, China Mobile, BT, and Sprint.
The next largest service providers include Telecom Italia, Comcast, and KDDI, which, according to their most recent growth rates, are poised to join the top 10.

The Asia Pacific telecom industry is squeezed between 2 opposite market forces: a saturated market made of Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan characterized by flat to decreasing capex, and a fast growing market driven by China and India, characterized by double digit growth for both capex and revenue

Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) service provider revenue jumped 29% between 2006 and 2007
Mobile infrastructure makes up the bulk of total equipment capex in 2007, accounting for about 20%, followed by voice infrastructure, optical equipment, and broadband aggregation equipment

WiMAX equipment spending by service providers as a portion of total carrier capex has roughly doubled each year since 2004, and will continue to increase its share in the near term, driven by major WiMAX projects in the US, India, and Latin America.

Notwithstanding the constant barrage of negative coverage of the price of oil, rising inflation, and the bursting of the housing bubble in the US, UK, Spain and elsewhere, the mobile industry still reflects people's needs to communicate.

China Relief: Here's Hao (How) You Can Help

After yesterday's Chinese quake-poem post I want to help guide informed readers to take action and help those in need in China.

With thanks to Ryan McLaughlin a friend who runs the extremely helpful "Lost Loawai" website covering China and Ex-pats plus the "Hao Hao Report" which compiles great web content on China, here's a more Asian centric group of relief organizations. Note you can text your contribution directly through China Mobile's Text contribution service. A great idea. 

Use the following information so that in your small way you can give and help. 

Red Cross Society of China

The Red Cross has set up a bank account for donations that will go directly to help the victims. Please use the following account information to give whatever amount you can to help. 

In China

RMB Account: 0200001009014413252
Address: The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Beijing Dongsinan Branch
Foreign Currency: 7112111482600000209
Address: CITIC Bank , Jiuxianqiao Branch

If Overseas:

If you are outside of China, but would still like to offer some support, you can deposit US dollars into the following account:

US Dollar Account: 7112111482600000209
China CITIC Bank Beijing, Jiuxianqiao Branch
C&W Tower. No.14,
Jiuxianqiao Street, Chaoyang District
Beijing, China
Zip Code: 100016
Swift Code：CIBKCNBJ100
TEL: 86-10-64319780

Heart to Heart

Heart to Heart International is a global humanitarian organization that inspires, empowers and mobilizes individuals to serve the needs of the poor in their communities and around the world. They accomplish this mission through partnerships that promote health; deliver resources, education and hope; and provide opportunities for meaningful service.

The Heart to Heart team in China mobilized for action shortly after the magnitude-7.8 earthquake struck northwest of Chengdu, where their office and clinic are located. Their medical director and staff were onsite providing medical and direct patient care in support of local relief efforts.

The organization has a number of ways you can donate - either through bank deposit, or directly online. Please see their donation page for details. The Web site also includes an excellent donor guide to appropriate disaster giving, and information on assembling care kits. 

Jet Li's One Foundation

Another way to donate is through Kung Fu master actor, Jet Li's One Foundation. The site has options to pay by various online methods (including PayPal) with all proceeds going to the Red Cross Society of China.

China Mobile - donate through SMS

China Mobile has set up an earthquake relief fund. To donate via your mobile phone, simply send a text message to the telephone number ‘10699988’, writing the number amount you would like to donate (from 1RMB to 30RMB) in the body of the text. The money will be deducted from your phone bill or prepaid card.

Other Means for different Means

If none of these donation methods suit your particular situation, definitely check out CNReviews' China Earthquake Donation guide. The blog master Elliot Ng is continually seeking additional ways you can donate. Check it out.

Add a badge to your blog/site  [Look Up and to the Right]

If you want to help spread the word about how people can help with donations for disaster relief you can use the following code badge for your website. Note, I've placed it on Mobile Point View. You can do the same for yours. 

     THE CODE:      

href="

http://www.lostlaowai.com/china-earthquake-how-you-can-help" title="China Quake Relief"><img src="http://www.lostlaowai.com/images/china-quake-donate.png" alt="China Quake Donation" width="200px" height="100px" border="0" /></a>

If you know of any additional ways in which help can be offered to the people of Sichuan,  China please please send me a note and I'll include it here.

The Road to Heaven is too Dark

I write early in the morning--right now it is 05:18 am, the beginning of a glorious spring day in Washington DC. The sky is turquoise, with lingering licks of darkness as the sun begins to rise. The Canadian geese are aflight towards the lake down the street. The blackbirds are cackling. Clearly the start of a great day to taste the wonder of life.

In reading my overnight China traffic, I came across this touching poem of a mother and child's final journey. Sorrow. Grief. Joy and memory all bundled together. As a parent it gives pause as to how wrenching such loss is for the many Chinese mothers and fathers who have lost their "little princes and princesses." Bitter sweet, drink it in and savor it.

It may be trite but such scale tragedy places perspective on that which matters most through this tenuous earthly journey: family, friends, heart and love. If you are action oriented, Click >here< for a list of relief organizations that are providing on the ground assistance to the Chinese rescue, recovery, relief and rebuilding efforts.

孩子     Child

快        Hurry up
抓紧妈妈的手           Tightly hold your Mom’s hand
去天堂的路        The road to heaven

太黑了                is too dark

妈妈怕你            Mom is afraid that

碰了头               you hit your head
快                     Hurry up
抓紧妈妈的手               Tightly hold your Mom’s hand
让妈妈陪你走      Let Mom keep you company
妈妈               Mom

怕           I am afraid
天堂的路             The road to heaven

太黑        is too dark
我看不见你的手        I cannot see your hand

自从        since

倒塌的墙         the wall collapsed
把阳光夺走     it took the sun light away
我再也看不见      I cannot see

你柔情的眸          your lovely eyes again
孩子            Child

你走吧        You can go
前面的路    the road in front of you

再也没有忧愁        has no sorrow any more
没有读不完的课本             there are no books that you cannot finish reading
和爸爸的拳头         and your father’s touch of his hand 

你要记住         you have to remember

我和爸爸的摸样         my face and your father’s face
来生还要一起走     let’s finish walking this road together in our next life
妈妈                 Mom

别担忧           do not worry
天堂的路有些挤             the road to heaven is a bit crowded
有很多同学朋友          I have a lot classmates and friends here 

我们说            we all say
不哭                                         don’t cry
哪一个人的妈妈都是我们的妈妈       anyone’s Mom is our Mom
哪一个孩子都是妈妈的孩子          any child is Mom’s child
没有我的日子                         the days without me
你把爱给活的孩子吧         give your love to the children alive
妈妈                        Mom
你别哭               don’t cry

泪光照亮不了     tears cannot light up the road

我们的路            our road
让我们自己         let us

慢慢的走             walk slowly
妈妈                  Mom
我会记住你和爸爸的模样      I will remember your face and father’s face

记住我们的约定          remember our appointment

来生一起走                 of walking together in our next life

Internet Tales: China vs The West & Rest

10 Ways the Chinese Internet is Different

In the course of searching for interesting & different content for Mobile Point View I sometimes find a jewel amongst the rocks. Such is the case with Mobiz (strapline: Trends and Opportunities in Mobile and Internet Space in China and Rest of the World), a blog written by Nokia Executive and wireless veteran Alvin Foo. Based in China, he has a nice balance of personal stories mixed in with solid analysis of mobile trends and technology initiatives in China. He's a pathfinder having blogged since 2004. I wanted to share Alvin's newest post "10 Ways the Chinese Internet is Different" for my global readers, as well as my own comments on each. Drop by Alvin's Mobiz & edify on the ways of China.

1. Its slower
Thanks to the Great Firewall, accessing the internet especially websites residing outside China can be a real pain.   Tell me about it. My friends in China keep advising me that MobilePointView sometimes is accessible and sometimes not. Notwithstanding the fact that I've never written a cross word about China!! There are many times I'd rather be there with 10% economic growth rate than here in the US where mobile is hardly cutting edge!  But what about Mobile access to the web, how's that compared to the west--same same. With most Chinese now accessing the web via mobile, does it really matter how fast a tethered connection is?

2. Its monitored. The Chinese authorities monitor all traffic going in and out of China.
Well, so it seems is the Australian web soon. Monitoring may not be all that bad given below. Yet again, read above and it makes you take pause. Readers, what's your view ?

3. Access to foreign Web sites is limited: The Chinese government uses four mechanisms -- DNS blocking, reset commands, URL keyword blocking and content scanning to prevent Internet users in the country from reaching blacklisted Web sites or content.  I've heard there are also readers pouring over the internet, much like massive public works projects used to be built by hand and hordes of workers. Any truth to that, or is it "geopolitical myth making?"

4. Blackouts are common
If the Chinese government finds that a user has downloaded forbidden content, it breaks the connection and prohibits the user from establishing communications with the site. These blackouts can last anywhere from two minutes to an hour. Umm, I'm also advised by a student who used to work for me that her dorm electricity is turned off at 11:00 pm every night. When do you get to study then?

5. Its censored.The authority employs thousand of people to go through content and censor whatever they find sensitive. Ah, see item 2 question.

6. There's less porn: The Chinese government justifies its Internet monitoring efforts by telling the public that it is keeping online information "wholesome" and free of threats such as sexual predators. Online pornography is not as pervasive in China, and users are less likely to stumble upon it. Good.

7. It's safer. Malicious activity including phishing scams, bots and zombies is less common in China than in the United States. China represented 7% of the Internet's malicious activity, while the United States represented 31% during the second half of 2007. One rationale for the Chinese Internet monitoring system is to keep hackers at bay. Seems sensible.

8. There's less spam. China produces 4% of the world's spam, while the United States is the origin for 42% of all unsolicited e-mail. China decreased its spam volume by 131% in the second half of 2007, largely by reducing the number of bot-infested computers. Here, too. Seems sensible.

9. It's based on IPv6. The China Next Generation Internet is an IPv6 backbone that the Chinese government is using as a testbed to develop IPv6 services, including distance learning and telemedicine. IPv6 is an upgrade to the Internet's main communications protocol that features enough IP addresses for the Chinese population. I'm curious whether IPv6 is a Chinese initiated technical upgrade. Might be reflective of industrial policy and strategy. If China adopts a standard, it is now at the point of rightfully effecting global standards to adhere. Nothing new here, others have tried it, e.g., PHS out of Japan, CDMA out of the US, etc.

10. Its growing faster. The Chinese domain .cn are growing much faster than any domain in the world. Dot cn grew by 399% than the 24% year on year for .com and .net. WOW!  Two words: Head East.

Thanks for the informative post Alvin.

Velti Invests in CASEE & Chinese Mobile Marketing

Velti Maneuvers into China's Mobile Marketing

Chinese mobile advertising startup CASEE has closed an investment from London-based mobile marketing company Velti plc. The investment was worth up to $6 million, according to the announcement from Velti. CASEE operates an on line mobile advertising marketplace at CASEE.cn  Riding on the success of AdMob neutral off-deck posture, some have characterized CASEE as the AdMob of China. Here's the value proposition: Wireless application protocol (WAP) site operators go to CASEE and sign up to run ads on their sites, while advertisers can bid for ad space through CASEE. So within the vernacular they provide inventory to those interested in mobile marketing campaigns. 

This caught my interest for all the obvious reasons--a Chinese company again leading a mobile initiative and gaining western attention, a mobile marketing play, international M&A--but mostly since I know Velti, the company which invested in CASEE.

Velti is run by CEO Alex Moukas who I had the chance to interview at CTIA in April. Velti is the leading mobile marketing company with over US$60 million in revenues--not the start up AdMob; a listing on the London AIM exchange makes it a far more robust public company. How many other mobile marketing companies are public?  None other that I know of. The company's been around for 8 years, starting out in the mobile messaging space and migrated up as the market has evolved. Mobile advertising is one of the most effective ways of driving fuller branding efforts especially within emerging markets such as China, where most access the Internet via a mobile WAP page. Good play for Velti.

Listen to my interview here with Velti CEO Alex Moukas: (x1, 10:30)

Mutual Utility
Velti's investment is a good play for them to enter into the fastest growing Chinese mobile market. CASEE is serving over 500 million ads a month on over 3,000 WAP sites in China. The company currently has 25 employees, but expects to reach 45 by the end of 2008. The company's publishing partners include Sina, Sohu and QQ.  The announcement said that Velti will be able to extend CASEE's mobile advertising technology outside of China and that the two companies will cooperate on product offerings and development. CASEE's founder and CEO is Xin Ye, former CTO of Linktone (NASDAQ: LTON).

GOOD BONES  & SMEs

CASEE was founded in 2006 by a local Chinese team headquartered in Beijing. Advertising clients span MNCs such as Kodak and General Motors to local, small and medium-sized enterprises. These Chinese SMEs are the real value here since that will be the primary source of advertising growth via the mobile channel in China for the future. Using their special sauce, it matches bids for advertising space against inventory offerings through targeting to maximise the price received by over 2000 content publishers from their WAP sites from advertisers. In short, the basic mobile marketing advertising model currently employed across the globe.  The real value here is the access the CASEE founders have in the Chinese market, including it's CEO, Xin Ye, who was the CTO of  Sohu. The founders and board have extensive experience in the local market, having held senior executive positions at US-listed Chinese companies like Sohu, Baidu and Linktone. CASEE serves more than 500 million ads every month to mobile phones in China and receives its revenues from advertisers.

I think both companies will fare well from the linking investment. Clearly it provides both a complimentary and substantial leg up, into mutually interested markets: one to go outside of China, the other the chance to get into China. Looks like a: win-win. Watch both.

Now the Dragon eyes the Lion

Is China Mobile in the MTN hunt?

China Mobile has publicly admitted that it is interested in the South African mobile market but has not yet formalized an offer for MTN, the subject of takeover interest by India's Bharti--see my "Poaching in Africa: Bharti's Hunting MTN."

"China Mobile has not joined the MTN bidding, but we are interested in the South African market and we are looking at various opportunities for entering that market," China Mobile CEO Wang Jianzhou stated today after the company's annual meeting. Earlier this week I relayed that Bharti's approach could spark a bidding war for MTN, citing a UBS report that suggested China Mobile, among others, could be interested in bidding for the operator.

Godzilla chasing Bambi?

According to the GSMA's Wireless Intelligence, China Mobile dominates its domestic market with approximately 385 million subscribers as of end first-quarter 2008. This is almost THREE TIMES the  combined customer base of both India's Bharti and MTN's multiple operators. Reuters notes that China Mobile has a mixed track record of acquisitions, stating that it came close to buying emerging-markets operator Millicom International Cellular in 2006 before pulling the plug on the deal. In May 2007 it made its first and only overseas acquisition to date, buying Pakistan’s Paktel Ltd from Millicom for US$460 million.

China Mobile was also rumored last year to be eying MTN, but denied at the time that a deal was being considered. In February, China Mobile opened an EMEA headquarters in London, stating that emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East are priorities for the operator this year. We're now in the deny and chaos stage of takeovers. Given China's presence in throughout Africa and it's growing need for core resources it is a natural strategy to purse. 

There are probably two more iterations in this dance, one feigned interest in MTN by a conglomerate, then either admission or escalation regarding a another bid for MTN by Bharti. Too bad all the action is thousands of miles away from the good ol' USA.

Poaching in Africa: Bharti's hunting MTN

Remember "India Eyes Africa" where I covered a possible takeover of MTN by Bharti?

Well, we've got market action in "the Bush"--both financial and commercial--indicating that MTN is in the cross hairs of Bharti.  Bharti, which operates India's Airtel as well as being a massive conglomerate, has a bid reported at US$19 billion for a 51 percent stake in the Johannesburg SA based MTN.

Shares in MTN surged to a two-and-a-half year high yesterday after both companies confirmed that an offer had been tabled following weeks of speculation. The bid, which reportedly includes US$12 billion in financing from investment banks Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered, values MTN at US$37 billion.

India: The new source of Global Conglomerates--Is China on Deck?

If Bharti is successful, this would be the high water mark for an overseas acquisition by an Indian company. True to the stages of "M&A dance" Bharti continues to deny, issuing a statement yesterday relaying that "discussions are still at an early stage, are exploratory in nature and may or may not lead to any transaction."  Yea, right.  The champagne is already being chilled in the offices of speculators in London and Jo'burg. Did you buy MTN as a result of my last post? Obviously, we both should have!

Bloomberg is reporting any confirmation from Bharti could spark a bidding battle for MTN, citing a UBS report that suggests Vodafone, India's other industrial conglomerate Reliance and China Mobile, one of the highest market cap companies in the world, could ALL be interested in bidding for the operator--that would be the story of the year in the industry. Bloomberg also notes a report from Citigroup that claims that Singtel, which owns 30.5 percent of Bharti, may be "directly" involved in the MTN bid--I already covered that four days ago, gents...MTN has 68.2 million mobile subscribers covering 21 markets across Africa and the Middle East.  Bharti would be spending US$542.52 per sub in a region where the average ARPU (average revenue per user per month) is less than US$5.

Stay tuned. Only fools think that you can't make money in the low ARPU, high growth areas of Africa, and Bharti is not run by fools.

Speaking of fools, anyone besides me wondering why there are no American operators in this game of global investment and consolidation within the mobile industry? After all ATT's CEO stated earlier this year they wanted to expand internationally including India. Why not Africa? Oh, and don't forget T Mobile--from UberDeutchland--is looking at Sprint. And for that matter what would Verizon do with a GSM operator anywhere anyhow? Right. Don't hold your breath for the American operators.

The tanking dollar prohibits these big plays. Plus, the core American operators are too parochial to have a global vision, with most execs believing that the US market is big enough--of course that begs the question what about share value when the US reaches 100% mobile penetration in the next few years? Reverting back to classique Bell Head mentality. Takes a global vision, awareness of differences, creativity and a propensity for action to claim value around the globe these days. Seems the Indian operators have the fortitude for the fight....Look to see MTN falling into the hands of Bharti before the US Independence Day.