Mobile Point View by Paul Ruppert

25 million Chinese mobile time-bombs in India

25 million mobile handsets may turn into paper weights in India on April 15, 2009.

Chinese handset manufacturers have flooded the Indian market with over 25 million handsets over the last few years and these phones do not have IMEIs.  What is an IMEI you say?

An IMEI is a unique 15-digit code that identifies the handset. Each time a call is made, the mobile network operator uses the IMEI to identify the caller via a universal registry of phones. If a phone lacks an IMEI, the telecommunications company can still route the number to the destination, but it does not know which phone is making the call. Therein, rests the problem: India's Department of Telecommunications in the Ministry of Communications and I.T. believes these anonymous IMEI phones could be used by terrorists of any stripe or color.

India's Dept of Telecomm relayed to mobile operators in India that in " the interest of national security, all Indian telecom operators should focus on implementing checks of IMEI within two months."  That was in October 2008. Now April 15 is the deadline. Wireless service providers in India are expected to disconnect mobile phones that lack IMEI on April 15.

While Indian mobile phone users can verify their own IMEI numbers by pressing *#06# on their handsets, what if the consumer is among the unlucky  25 million who are holding one of these 25 million handsets lacking an IMEI? The DoT estimates the 25 million phones lacking IMEI in India account for about 10% of the total phones used in the country.

Indian users are clearly concerned.

And what of the Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, are they inclined to remedy this? Indeed, where is the responsible action from the Indian operators in the first place? Seems nothing at the moment for or from both.

And the ripple effect could spread to financial markets: consider both Vodafone and Airtel could have their stock price effected if suddently these phones turn into bricks. Considering that it is likely these phones are used more by bottom of the pyramid consumers than top, to get these users back, the mobile operators will have to subsidize ever more new phone purchases. A continuing drag could develop.

Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

One Year in my Blog Life: Keeping Score at Mobile Point View

Readers from 128 Countries

Journalistic cycles  are often driven by calender milestones so today I celebrate my first anniversary as a blogger--albeit it slightly tardy. 

I started Mobile Point View in April of 2007 primarily to frame and define my "personal brand", project and shape awareness of my industry perspective and "thought leadership", enabling me to keep my eye focused on the mobile industry and global business trends through a discipline to discuss my views.

Along the journey I found it also fed internal motivations such as a love/hate relationship with writing, and my wanderlust for "Adventure Roads" and "Adventure Capitalism."

Plus, it feeds my spirit to learn more about other cultures and keep my skills sharp in making connections--both technical and human.  I've been told I've got a combinatorial world view which my blogging reflects, being part travelogue, wireless industry and global commerce analysis, pus a passionate interest in high growth markets such as China, Africa, and the Middle East.

Recognitions & Connections

An unexpected turn along the path has been the recognition of my views and writings by technoscenti like Om Malik of DigOm, Gerry Purdee of Forrester Research and mobilista Rudy De Waele. A surprising approach by Mobile Messaging 2.0 to contribute to that corporate sponsored blog has led to additional "thought leadership" and recently my being tapped to be the Managing Editor of Mobile Messaging 2.0. So now I'm a "professional" journalist, meaning my meanderings put some coin in my pocket.

Another unexpected consequence of having a cyberspace billboard has been the people I've become acquainted with--gratifyingly in other countries--who have graciously shared their time, interests and expertise with me by reaching out and establishing a personal connection as result of my views, especially Lars in Tokyo, Ben in Beijing, Mikki in Hong Kong, Tarek in Egypt, Feng in Beijing, James in London, and Mohammed in Iraq.

Reflecting a modicum of success, the connectedness of the mobile industry and power of the internet, the number of others who I have met at conferences who entered a conversation with "I know you, I've read your blog!" has been surprising and energizing.

What I'm most proud of is being relevant and interesting to readers from 128 countries.   

After a year of blogging, I've got a slurry of mixed metrics on total visits (over 100,000 ), page views, time on blog, google juice, etc., but the one which I'm most proud of is the reflection of my reach and global view point.   Having readers from so many countries reflects my purpose, passion and pursuits to illuminate the power of mobile communications to consumers and its fundamentally global characteristics. 

Interesting Quirks of Where My Readers Are 

Some interesting aspects of my readership include:  9,600 visits from readers in India, 900 visits from readers in Pakistan, 30 visits from readers in Myanmar, over 740 visits from readers in Iran, and 400 visits from readers in Nepal. I've got one regular reader in Foggaret el Arab, the dead middle of Algeria with a population of 4,300. The snowiest reader must be in Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut, Canada--probably someone visiting the Lodge.

I guess that reflects the power of the web, the strength of interest in mobile communications, and once in a while my ability to strike a chord which resonates with a variety of people in diverse international locations. 

Here's a tally of reader countries as of June 2008

A Year in the Blog Life
	Visitors from 128 Countires
Americas (25)	Europe (40)	Asia (26)	Middle East (11)	Africa (26)
US	UK	Australia	Afghanistan	Algeria
Barbados	Andorra	Bangladesh	Bahrain	Botswana
Bolivia	Aserbaijian	Brunei	Egypt	Cameroon
Brazil	Austria	Cambodia	Iran	Canary Islands
Canada	Azores	China	Iraq	Cote D'Ivoire
Cayman Islands	Belgium	Fiji	Israel	Djibouti
Chile	Bosnia	Guam	Jordan	Ethopia
Columbia	Bulgaria	Hong Kong	Kuwait	Gambia
Costa Rica	Czech Republic	India	Oman	Ghana
Dominican Republic	Denmark	Indonesia	Qatar	Libya
Ecuador	Estonia	Japan	UAE	Madagasacar
Grenada	Faeroe  Islands	Kazakhsatan	Yemen	Mali
Guatemala	Finland	Korea		Mauritius
Haiti	France	Laos		Moambique
Honduras	Georgia	Malaysia		Moldova
icaragua	Germany	Marutius		Morocco
Jamiaca	Gibraltar	Myanmar		Mutitania
Martinique	Greece	Nepal		Nigeria
Mexico	Iceland	New Zealand		S. Africa
Paraguay	Ireand	Pakistan		Senegal
Peru	Italy	Philippines		Sudan
Puerto Rico	Latvia	Singapore		Swaziland
St. Vincent	Lichtenstein	Taiwan		Tanzania
Trinidad	Lithuania	Tajikistan		Togo
Urguay	Luxemburg	Thailand		Tunisia
Venezuela	Macedonia	Uzbekistan		Uganda
	Mallorca	Vietnam		Zaire
	Malta
	Monaco
	Netherlands
	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Romania
	Russia
	Serbia
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Turkey
	Ukraine

Now the Dragon eyes the Lion

Is China Mobile in the MTN hunt?

China Mobile has publicly admitted that it is interested in the South African mobile market but has not yet formalized an offer for MTN, the subject of takeover interest by India's Bharti--see my "Poaching in Africa: Bharti's Hunting MTN."

"China Mobile has not joined the MTN bidding, but we are interested in the South African market and we are looking at various opportunities for entering that market," China Mobile CEO Wang Jianzhou stated today after the company's annual meeting. Earlier this week I relayed that Bharti's approach could spark a bidding war for MTN, citing a UBS report that suggested China Mobile, among others, could be interested in bidding for the operator.

Godzilla chasing Bambi?

According to the GSMA's Wireless Intelligence, China Mobile dominates its domestic market with approximately 385 million subscribers as of end first-quarter 2008. This is almost THREE TIMES the  combined customer base of both India's Bharti and MTN's multiple operators. Reuters notes that China Mobile has a mixed track record of acquisitions, stating that it came close to buying emerging-markets operator Millicom International Cellular in 2006 before pulling the plug on the deal. In May 2007 it made its first and only overseas acquisition to date, buying Pakistan’s Paktel Ltd from Millicom for US$460 million.

China Mobile was also rumored last year to be eying MTN, but denied at the time that a deal was being considered. In February, China Mobile opened an EMEA headquarters in London, stating that emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East are priorities for the operator this year. We're now in the deny and chaos stage of takeovers. Given China's presence in throughout Africa and it's growing need for core resources it is a natural strategy to purse. 

There are probably two more iterations in this dance, one feigned interest in MTN by a conglomerate, then either admission or escalation regarding a another bid for MTN by Bharti. Too bad all the action is thousands of miles away from the good ol' USA.

MWC: Personalized Messaging & Advertising for Emerging Markets

Jinny Software

As part of the cavalcade which is the 2008 Mobile Web Congress I'm getting the privlege to talk with a number of industry leaders heading companies which are driving change within the mobile industry. One which I discovered is Jinny Software, a "personal messaging services company" according to their CEO, Max Wilke, a veteran of the wireless industry. The company provides hardware and software solutions to operators around the world emphasizing low penetration, fast growth, low ARPU emerging mobile markets such as in Africa, Middle East and Asia. With software origins they are a part of the Italian Acatel Group which did an IPO in 2000 and are moving up the supply chain to providing value added services for operators.

Their product portfolio includes SMSc's, MMSc's, as well as a Media Resource Server with rating and charging funtionality interfacing with all major billing services.

Strategically Jinny Software has been very successful in leveraging their current customer base of operators in developing countries and organically growing into new markets. Translation: serve as a trusted agent to operators  especially those with low ARPU's who are still cobling together revenue earning platforms for bottom of the pyramid markets, and you can capture a handsome revenue source, even in overlooked markets. Following a contrarian strategy by stepping down to simpified solution services instead of the high value smart phone hyped tip of the pyramid (reading iPhone stratosphere which is the black hole of hype), Jinny's value proposition focuses on growing operator ARPU, cost efficiencies and innovative applications in order to extract more value for existing traffic. A new theater which they are harvesting is a migration to advertising with a twist--advertising on the terms of their market parameters. Not Click to Action, or other high function demands of tip of the pyramid, but advertising suitable for the developing southern hemisphere of the world, read Africa, middle Asia and Latin America.

Jinny will be announcing at the Mobile World Congress the successful trial of an SMS advertising solution that will underpin new revenue streams for the mobile conglomerate Zain, starting in their Jordan property this year. The solution provides the capability to deliver advertisements over SMS messaging from any advertiser or agency. This solution gives Zain in Jordan the ability to take an early and strong position in an industry that is expected to earn US$18 billion by 2011

Built on Jinny’s proven technologies in messaging and filtering, the Advertising Engine has the power to deliver tailored advertising in a variety of ways. Whether an advertisement should be inserted into peer-to-peer messaging traffic or as a pre-page video clip, the Advertising Engine – thanks to sophisticated keyword and profile matching – can ensure the advert is relevant and useful to its audience, the consumer. Built to deliver tailored, targeted advertising that consumers want, as opposed to spam, the Advertising Engine is poised to meet the growth and ARPU-increase needs of operators this year and into the future.

Max Wilkie, CEO of Jinny Software, advised me in our interview, “We are once again delighted to be able to deliver a world-class solution to the Zain Group. With the Advertising Engine from Jinny, Zain in Jordan is now able to exploit the expanding business of mobile advertising and take advantage of new and sustainable revenue streams. There is no doubt that both Zain in Jordan and Jinny can build on this success to explore other media and messaging solutions to offer an increasingly powerful channel to advertisers.”

Eschewing the models pursued by the likes of the fledgling Admob, Amobee, AdInfust, Third Screen, as well as the Rhino size players Comverse, Acision and Haawie and others, Jinny offers bespoke like solutions for the whimsies of emerging markets that are seeking flexible solutions thus empowering developing the world's operators with easy to use Voice SMS, ring back solutions that act as a meeting mediating filter, and easy to use SMS services appropriate for the lowest rung of the economic ladder. By targeting bread and butter solutions, Jinny offers up the jam by tapping P2P messaging and providing a subsidized ad service enabling resource restricted consumers in developing markets the means to access core SMS technology without spending too much of their hard earned money. Tip of the pyramid users (and many mobile executives) may scoff at the idea of opt in messaging thinking it would go the way of opt in long distance and voice services, but emerging, low ARPU markets provide a plumb opportunity for such services according to Max Wilke, CEO of Jinny. Their services are well suited for networks that are still building out their network layers in markets where the average ARPU barely breaks US$ 10 per month.  Jinny is one to watch.