Mobile Point View by Paul Ruppert

Noteworthy Predictions

I came across one of the more thoughtful group of Mobile Predictions at Mobile Messaging 2.0, by Airwide Solutions' Chris Lennartz.

       Here's the 9 Top Line Predictions for 09.

1. Mobile Messaging will defy the economic downturn
2. Less Developed regions will fuel new peaks in SMS activity
3. China will fuel MMS uptake
4. Personalization will come of age
5. Mobile Marketing & Advertising will surge ahead
6. Mobile internet will overtake 'tethered internet' usage
7. Focus on mobile security will increase with the coming of mobile commerce
8. The Digital Youth will drive transformational changes in communications
9. Mobile will go green

All are spot on, and reflect reasonable goals and perspectives in a field which is usually fraught with hype. If you drop by www.mobilemessaging2.com there's also a group of slides reflecting special research commissioned by Airwide with Commscore M:Metrics. A nice bonus....

In times like these, any company in mobile should keep a candle to the winds of pessimism, and pursue a practical path of focusing on gaining a better understanding of, and more effectively manage the needs of, their customers and secure customer loyalty--a priceless advantage at any time, whether in 2009 or into the future.

 

Mobile Point View's 2009 Predictions on the Mobile Industry

Ah, the end of the year approaches (thank God) and requires the usual journalistic right of passage--predictions for the upcoming New Year in the mobile industry.

For my reading audience, as well as those tuned into the Mobile Influencers Podcast at iTunes, here’s Mobile Point View's 2009 Mobile Industry Predictions

iPhon-ification Continues
Consider the following.

• Roughly 13 million iPhones were sold by Sept. 30, 2008—as recorded by Apple in their Q408 financials   

• The iPhone store had 200 million downloads in the first 100 days, so that is 2 million downloads/day.

• Those 13 million iPhon-iacs downloaded approximately the same number of apps in 30 days that 250 million non-iPhone owners downloaded in 90 days.  

• That’s a 60x multiple in terms of the likelihood that an iPhon-iac will download an app than a non-iPhone owner.

• Conclusion: You need 780  million non-iPhone owners--iPhon-ophobes?-- with access to your application before you could match the actual reach of 13 million iPhone owners. 

• 5500 apps in the App Store have created $1Billion annual run rate in App Store revenue. A billion dollars boys and girls.

• Apple has leapt into second place worldwide in terms of smartphone sales with their Q4 figure of 6.9MM units sold, selling more iPhones than Blackberries. iPhones now own 17% of the worldwide smartphone market.

• With Wal-Mart’s recent announcement of the iPhone availability at the world’s largest retailer, the halo effect of the iPhone migrating to lower economic segments will only accelerate its market penetration.

Mobile will “reset” just as the rest of the economy is being re-set
With the rest of the world’s economy engaging in a ‘re-set’ over the coming year, the economics of the mobile business will have to be re-set within the minds of analysts and operators. GE CEO Jeff Immelt stated in November that the economic crisis projecting into 2009 “represents a re-set, ...with the biggest reset will be government involvement in the economy, and in the affairs of business, for better or worse.”

Incremental penetration of mobile communications across all economic segments will not abate, but the tough reality is the “mobile money party” is likely to be over. Savage choices by consumers will be made with a higher unemployment rate by mid-year, and ARPU may decline precipitously in the coming months even with increasing gross net ads of subscribers.  Yes, there still is a need for voice and data, but don’t expect double digit growth in the segment for sometime.

The Emerging US Broadband Gap
In the US, incoming President Obama’s initial inclinations are to make a big government ‘infrastructure’ investment to counter attack the recession. Let’s hope that it goes beyond bricks and "bridges to no where” to include digital bridges as well.  The US woefully lags behind other nations in the upload and down load speeds of its wireless networks, and even broad mobile functionality as compared to other country markets around the world. Why isn’t anyone talking about how we should be investing in faster mobile networks, whether as part of broader Wi fi coverage or wide area mobile networks? They will be. Soon. JFK got elected on the back of the “missile gap”, expect some enterprising American politicians to start bringing attention to this sorely overlooked topic of the mobile bits and bytes infrastructure in 2009.

Interoperability Part 2
Thirteen years ago interoperability surrounding text messaging had just been implemented in Europe, with the US soon to reach that same stage of development. Under the covers, messaging now has a de facto hub and spoke structure between aggregators and carriers. Look for that to solidify, not to the benefit of say MMS, but to its detriment. Innovations such as Syniverse’s IM SMS interoperability hub will ignite the broader offerings of mobile IM by carriers, greater usage by consumers, thus narrowing the offer of MMS to the niche of picture transfer, and even there it doesn’t always work. Look for big steps to be taken for IM and SMS interoperability in 09.

Chill of potential regulation over Mobile Marketing
There are growing fissures in the mobile marketing business model. The announcement by Verizon in October to increase the fee paid by others to deliver into their network for the purpose of mobile delivered advertising, aka "standard rate termination fees" has caused a significant chill in the market. Not necessarily with the operators, nor the consumer, but the guys who pay the freight: Brands and advertisers who see an unstable pricing model by a core supplier as a real risk and big uncertainty. Notwithstanding the growth of mobile marketing as well as its huge potential, the expectation that 2009 is the year of mobile marketing may be extended. Layer on Capital Hill, as well as state level Attorney General offices, are getting more interested in this segment, its costs structures and business model of mobile advertising. Greater transparency is the new zeitgeist so If the ecosystem isn't careful, 2009 might bring a cold blast from the likes of Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl who chairs the Senate Commerce Committee. 

China will finally launch the iPhone...sometime in 09
Apple is facing the dilemma of a choice between the Dragon and the Deep Blue Sea. Either get into the world’s largest mobile phone market (currently nearing 700 million subscribers) or break the imposed revenue sharing model with operators currently in effect in other countries around the world. Having worked and lived in China, as well as negotiated with China Mobile and China Unicom, when I see quotes as those from GSM Asia in Macau last November: “Secondly, our business model does not entail sharing revenue with terminal producers -- we don't share revenue. That's a Chinese rule," said a China Mobile executive," makes me believe the Chinese have the advantage. Apple has 365 days to give, which they will.

Strong Balance Sheets, Emerging Corporate Venturing and Over Fragmentation
2009 will bring the close of many VCs. It's inevitable, there has been many marginal funds that are not going to last, many of which were making early stage investments, some in mobile. The contraction within the VC industry, as well as the general contraction in the economy will spur an emergence of more venture activity by Corporate Venture and Innovations Groups. During tough times, leaders move to consolidate their industry position as well as 'catch a march' or 'lengthen their stride' against their rivals, and as the vacume increases from diminished venture fund activity, expect to see an increase in large private and public companies to expand their activity in venture funding. Those that have strong balance sheets will lead this effort. One result may be the lessening of  'serial entrepreneurs' who have little or no mobile experience, and instead look to see C level changes as both VCs are forced to make savage choices and corporate innovations groups leverage their investment by placing seasoned and successful entrepreneurs back at the helms of mobile companies--meaning older, grayer, and more experienced executives who have navigated and successfully survived past recessions.  Mobile suffers from over fragmentation, and consolidation will be a definer in 09'er.

Operating Efficiencies
In the spirit of Sequoia’s notice to its venture investments, I’m cutting back by 30% in my predictions this year to conserve my muse resources, demonstrating higher efficiencies and lower burn rates, reflecting a 'shrink to grow' mentality. Of course that begs the question of my impact and productivity....

Happy New Year to all my readers and supporters of Mobile Point View around the world. May your immediate and intermediate time lines be stable, and your over the horizon be prosperous.

Or as the Chinese say:  gōng xǐ fā cái !

Chinese Wife Sends Message after being Dropped

Mobile Matrimonial Wars continue

According to Chinese news service Xinhua, a Chinese woman in Weifang city in the eastern province of Shandong, set fire to 400 spanking new mobile phones in response to her husband leaving her.

37 year old "Mrs. Wang" seemed inclined to send a message to her hubby over the lack of bliss in their marriage. The Wang couple ran a successful phone retail business in Weifang. Weifang known as the Kite Capital of the World," is "flying high" due to its growth.

The surge in the Wang phone business  had put the marriage on the rocks, and the couple frequently fought according to the Qilu Evening News.  On March 3rd, after a "bitter row", the husband "slammed the door and left their home."

Wrought with despair, and crazed--or focused--with anger Mrs. Wang collected their entire stock of mobile phones, tossed them on the bed, set them afire and left. Acrid black smoke brought the fire brigade who quickly subdued the flames, but not before the handsets, valued at 300,000 Yuan (US$ 42,100) were consumed. 

Mrs. Wang has been apprehended and charged with arson.

Predictive Text Commission

Saturday mornings are usually when I'm trying to bang out my weekly post while my 11 year old fumbles around making himself a breakfast of Chips Ahoy, Oreos or some such sweet-stuff until his prison warden Pop shows up. 

Today's tasks included adding John Puterbaugh's blog Mobile 2.0 and Emerging Mobile Media Services to my blog roll. John, the Chief Strategist at Nellymoser, and I met at an InMobile event at the Mobile World Congress two short weeks ago. (John's on the left)We had an engaging conversation and he'll be a pod cast guest here in the near future. Since I was adding  Mobile 2.0 to the log rolling blog roll, I figured I should edit the list, and started to read through other blogs I had paid neglectful attention to. Mobhappy made me happy.

Words we should use vs. Words we do use

Russell Buckley and Carlo Longino's Mobhappy post"Where do the T9 people get their words?" was very insightful and included this dry British take off of two Oxford-like dons on the demands and dilemmas of predictive text functionaly. I wonder what the Chinese Pinyan equivalent might be like with Zi? Check this out from YouTube.

Mobile Humour for the Holidays

A) A home office consultant asks a network repairman visiting his house to address a connection issue:

"If I have no wireless, does that make me a WiNo?" 

B) Several men are in the locker room of a private club after exercising. Suddenly a cell phone on one of the benches rings. A man picks it up and the following conversation ensues:

"Hello?"  "Honey, It's me." "Sugar!"  "Are you at the club?" "Yes."

"Great! I'm at the mall 2 blocks from where you are. I saw a beautiful mink coat. It is absolutely gorgeous! Can I buy it?"

"What's the price?" "Only $1,500." "Well, okay, go ahead and get it, if you like it that much."

"Ahhh, and I also stopped by the Mercedes dealership and saw the new models. I saw one I really liked. I spoke with the salesman and he gave me a really good price ... and since we need to exchange the BMW that we bought last year..." "What price did he quote you?" "Only $60,000!" "Okay, but for that price I want it with all the options." "Great! Before we hang up, something else..."

"What?" "It might seem like a lot, but I was reconciling your bank account and...well, I stopped by to see the real estate agent this morning and I saw the house we had looked at last year. It's on sale! Remember? The one with a pool, English garden, acre of park area, beachfront property..."

"How much are they asking?" "Only $450,000... a magnificent price, and I see that we have that much in the bank to cover..." "Well, then go ahead and buy it, but just bid $420,000, OK?" "Okay, sweetie. Thanks! I'll see you later!! I love you!!!" "Bye."

The man hangs up, closes the phone's flap and asks aloud, "Does anyone know to whom this phone belongs?"

Happy Holidays from Mobile Point View.

Open Channel D, please

Defining Mobile Hardware Moments

As a child growing up in mid-western suburban America in the teeth of the cold war, my worldly experience was considerably widened through the constant efforts to internationalize me by my war refugee French mother and former infantry platoon leader, retired State Department officer, practicing lawyer American father. Layer on the pop culture of the late 60s and the first of frequent international travel, I can look back and say my true steps to becoming a global mobile citizen were established through tv connections with Alexander Waverly, a New York tailor store front, and the agents of U.N.C.L.E. With the U.N.C.L.E. gun as part of my agent kit, as an eight year old I ran with my street mates holding a #2 pencil with a pin embedded in the eraser saying: "Open channel D, please. Overseas relay." My first use of high-tech mobile and global communicators. That pen phone was super cool on the "Man From U.N.C.L.E."

Check this Out

Well, the "Waverly phone" has finally arrived. Alexander Waverly was the boss ("Section 1, number 1") of Napoleon Solo and Illya Kuryakin who both used the "pen communicator." In the spirit of "Mr. Waverly" I dubb this the "Waverly phone." 

My phone handset industry sources advise me that the "Waverly phone" prototype is in the skunk works of an undisclosed handset manufacturer out of Asia which is researching market interest in the device. Believing most users will connect the phone to Bluetooth earpieces, the two target-shaped areas on the top and bottom in the lower image are the earpiece and receiver.

This is not the first effort to create a "pen phone" by a mobile handset manufacturer. Haier has already launched a "pen phone" , the P7, albeit lacking the "pen" the descriptor applied only to size not functionality. No way does it have the stylish design edge of the "Waverly phone."

This piece of field intelligence on a actual "pen phone" caught my eye becasue of the resonance to my imaginative childhood, but also to a serendipitous meeting I had on a Singapore airlines flight two years ago. My seat mate on the flight was a delightful, and strikingly attactive woman. [A rarity since most international travelers are middle aged men.] After some conversation we discovered that we were both in the mobile phone business--Lunita Mendoza--the editor of Wireless World Asia magazine out of Singapore. During the course of flight conversation she showed me her "new toy", a pen phone. Incredible. I recall mentioning that the screen was large enough for sending and reading text messaging. Now the Waverly Phone has arrived.      

Background 4 U Gen Xrs & Gen Yrs

The original "pen phone" is a silver pen that converts into a communication device, and is one of the most memorable spy gadgets of any TV espionage show. The "Pen Communicator", as it is called, was  used regularly by the stars of both the “Man From U.N.C.L.E” and “Girl From U.N.C.L.E.” tv series. U.N.C.L.E. agents would remove the pen's end piece, flip it around and reconnect it, exposing a gold microphone grid. They would then extract a hidden antenna from the other end, which, when turned, would activate the unit. The phrase “Open Channel D” would put Section II agents Napoleon Solo and Illya Kuryakin into direct contact with U.N.C.L.E. headquarters in New York City. Alternate voice-activated channels would connect them with each other, or with other field agents. Additional functions include amnesia inducer and electronic scanner. Fun Fact: James Bond's roots run through the show's creation.

Here's the TV theme which was my ringtone for my last phone, a Samsung slider:

Waverly Phone Design Drawbacks-Outside of the absence of the "&", "*", and "#" keys on the pen, I'm sure the ink supply can't last that long, nor the battery life as well. Some might argue the acoustics couldn't be that strong, but with the advent of NXT's thin screen speaker tecchnolgoy for mobiles, the microphone / speaker would be sufficient for secret agent calling. Is the Waverly phone easy to use? Well, details are naturally under wraps, so there is much speculation as to the full functionality of the Waverly phone. Simple to use, absolutely. Minimalist yes. So much so that a simple feature is not included in the prototype: a clip. Absent the clip, it won't stand up in a suit pocket let alone roll off a table once you put it down. (What was the the penalty for loosing U.N.C.L.E., hardware?) 

It fits comfortably in the hand resting between your thumb and forefingers. The W phone display is the unit's design showpiece taking full advantage of its real estate. While the beta version is black & white matrix, it is thought that launch versions will include brilliant colors, sharp graphics and halogram projection functionality. Unclear whether the device will be loaded with Android, Symbian or other Moble OSS. Look for it in speciality stores for Christmas '08 or earlier via Alibaba.com

Channel D...Out.                     

Tip of the hat to the US Central Intelligence Agency, the estate of Alexander Waverly , Archieves of the United Network Command for Law and Enforcement, the Nathan Hale Trust, the oral history of April Dancer and gizmodo.

What do you think about the Waverly "pen" phone?  Is this for real? I'm in the two way conversations business, especially with regular readers. It helps fuel my muse and provides a better product to get comments.  Please share your perspectives, additions, subtractions, bravos, taunts and tomatoes via comments. Anyone out there? Thanks for your continuing interest.

Right Brain Symphony -Review of "A Whole New Mind"

I discovered Daniel Pink’s “A Whole New Mind” while I was searching for a better way to make power point presentations. Conceptualizing about Power Point sent me to the Zen of design, which sent me to the negative space of graphics, which sent me to the psychology of multi media learning, where I landed upon Pink’s great book. The journey was reflective of Pink’s belief that just over the horizon, Right Brain (“R Directed thinking” in his lexicon), resplendent in its ability to recognize patterns in disparate actions, will be the key to success and competitive advantage.

After reading his book, you’ll agree that the future belongs to those of us who can craft symphonies from unrelated categories (as opposed to those who just analyze alone), who have narrative aptitude for story (instead of who just read power point slides), and who have empathy to solidify relationships (as opposed to transactional engagements), we will be the masters of the his Conceptual Age universe. 

Pink layers on aspects of globalization in advancing his argument pointing out that with ever flatter competitive markets, cost reductions and scale-well-educated workforces in Asia, the old narrow advantage of rote fact based work will fall to the greater functionality of working "jazz," blending and connecting "High Concepts"--relational advantages driven by right brain thinking. Not withstanding some of the New Age qualities such as “laughter class”, and buttressing the argument with globalization theory, Pink is spot on regarding the increasing economic value of pattern recognition and strategy development. At root his book is as much about approaches to business and competition as it is about psychology and the development of man’s working culture.

My epiphany in discovering the book is precisely how he outlined his theory of “High Concept” and its advantages. The pattern I detected in my journey was all about personal effectiveness. In riffing from design theory to graphics, then to learning theory, my “R Directed thinking” was cobbling together pattern recognition of personal effectiveness, the ability to lead an audience and establish “thought leadership.” That's how I jumped from powerpoints to human interpretation of information.

The easily read and well crafted book grabbed my attention from the first page. Along the way I found new language to describe how I already do things and approach problems. In building out a global business key elements of my success have been on the L Directed ability to execute, a focus on making things happen, but also within an overall big picture, R Directed aspects on the “Symphony” which Pink asserts the “Conceptual Age” will require. Too often, the business press narrows on “focus” to develop “expertise” but the real high value functions is not about how well you know one market or a technology, but how well you assimilate the pieces into the bigger picture. The special talent in the ability to interpret things simultaneously, in seeing all the elements of a situation and understanding what their integration leads to is really the Holy Grail in global business. In short, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

If you’re reading this blog, with its combinatorial elements, I think you’ll really enjoy Pink’s book. Whether it might be varied country markets such as Asia, N. America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, CEER, or a wide range of commercial sectors crossing mobile, banking, content, entertainment, platforms or social networks, the results and the rewards will go to those who can operate with equal aplomb in very different categories. Ummm, sounds familiar to my own background. [Note to Executive Recruiters, check out "About" on the side bar.] Probably why I enjoyed it so much. "A Whole New Mind” is an enlightening read for any global professional and should be on your reading list or office book shelf.